Jude Feld’s Kentucky Oaks Day Late Pick Four Analysis + Woodford Reserve (G1) & Kentucky Derby (G1)
May 1st, 2014
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 8 – THE EIGHT BELLES (G3)
#7 FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD is one of the best in her division. She excels sprinting and will appreciate the drop back in distance here. Her breeze at Churchill Downs on April 18 was reportedly excellent and Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith got acquainted with her last time out. #4 OUR AMAZING ROSE has won both of her starts. No doubt trainer Todd Pletcher has been pointing to this race as she was an early shipper to Churchill Downs. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez is on nothing but live mounts this afternoon and has another big chance with this filly. #5 JOJO WARRIOR is developing quickly for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. She posted a “best of the morning†workout over the track on April 27 and should be a pretty salty foe with Rosie Napravnik in the irons.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 9 – THE EDGEWOOD STAKES
There is a plethora of early speed fillies signed on here, so it seems likely this race will be won from off the pace. French-bred #5 LITTLE JOURNEY brings solid form from the “Provence†tracks. She has been training in sharp fashion for trainer Chad Brown and will appreciate the give in the ground caused by the recent storms. #4 CANDY KITTY is capable of good finishes. She’s run her best races on turf and gets the services of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. #2 COURAGEOUS JULIE didn’t seem to relish Oaklawn Park. She ran decently in her lone turf outing and is better-than-looked on paper. She’ll be a monster price too. This is a wild race and I would go as deep as you can here.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 10 – THE ALYSHEBA (G2)
Two of my favorite stakes runners square off here – #2 WILL TAKE CHARGE and #5 NORMANDY INVASION. I have loved the former since I saw him break his maiden at Keeneland many moons ago. He hasn’t run a bad race in nearly a year and is the deserved favorite. The latter ran fourth in last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) beaten less than four lengths. His return to the races this year has been very solid and he is capable of beating the top pick on his best day. #3 MYLUTE is not nearly as accomplished as the previous pair, but he has a lot of upside. His trainer, Tom Amoss, is having a banner year and a good effort should be expected.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 11 – THE LONGINES KENTUCKY OAKS (G1)
Many people have been comparing #13 UNTAPABLE to Rachel Alexandra. Her last two races have been mere “processions†as racecaller Trevor Denman likes to say. If she repeats either one of those efforts, this edition of the Kentucky Oaks (G1) is a mere formality. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been speaking glowingly of #12 GOT LUCKY. She has been the victim of short fields and slow paces but will have plenty to run at here. I can’t believe she’ll be 20-1 but I’ll take that over 3-5 any day. It’s hard to believe, but I think #2 RIA ANTONIA may have needed her race in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1). She has trained very well since shipping back East and may have missed the cooler weather as well. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith will give her a chance to win it at some point during the running. I have been impressed with the way trainer Wayne Catalano has prepared #8 AURELIA’S BELLE. She looked good winning the Bourbonette Oaks (G3) at Turfway Park and could get a piece of the pie if she continues her upward swing.
FOR OAKS-DERBY DOUBLES AND OAKS-WOODFORD RESERVE-DERBY PICK THREES
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 10 – THE WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (G1)
Two-time Horse of the Year, #1 WISE DAN, won last year’s edition of this race by open lengths. He is undefeated at Churchill Downs – a perfect three-for-three – and looks to add to his legend today. If you want to be a “wise guy†and try to beat the champ, #10 SEEK AGAIN might be the play. The son of Speightstown won his only American start, the Hollywood Derby (G1), so he has the quality to perform well “when the whole world is watching.†That was a quote from Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He saddles #9 SKYRING, a horse that often upsets good fields on big race days. He could steal it if left alone on the front end.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 11 – THE KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) PRESENTED BY YUM! BRANDS
The Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park has proven to be the “key race†of this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) trail. #16 INTENSE HOLIDAY and #20 WICKED STRONG both ran in that race and came back to win major Derby prep races. The former has trained superbly over the track and seems to be improving even more entering this race. It is very significant that trainer Todd Pletcher chose Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, his “go-to†rider for many years, to pilot this colt. The latter drew a tough post, but his run in the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct was nothing short of spectacular. The mile and a quarter is right up his alley and he has been carefully prepared by excellent trainer James Jerkens. #4 DANZA made everyone take notice when he won the Arkansas Derby (G1) at 41-1. It was his first race around two turns and he won with aplomb. He lacks seasoning, but he might just show everyone “who’s the boss†this afternoon. #5 CALIFORNIA CHROME has kicked ass in his home state. His 77-year-old trainer Art Sherman is the kind of man you would like to see win the Derby after a long and distinguished career. He brings a very good colt to Louisville. Longshots for your trifectas and supers and other exotic wagers include: #17 COMMANDING CURVE, who snuck in the Derby at the last minute in typical Dallas Stewart fashion, #14 MEDAL COUNT, trained by the cagey and talented Dale Romans, #19 RIDE ON CURLIN, ridden by Mr. Derby, Calvin Borel and #1 VICAR’S IN TROUBLE who drew a bad post, but shouldn’t be 30-1 on the morning line with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.
